Quantum computers are approaching the capability to break RSA-2048 — the encryption protecting most of the internet. This is not a drill.
Every year, researchers find more efficient factoring algorithms. Required qubits have dropped 200× since 2019 — purely through software, before any hardware improvement.
Any RSA key can be broken by a sufficiently large quantum computer running Shor's algorithm. Only the timeline differs.
| Key Size | Qubits Needed | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSA-512 | Broken classically (1999) | ~2,000 | Minutes | ● Broken |
| RSA-1024 | Insecure (deprecated) | ~25,000 | Hours | ● Critical |
| RSA-2048 | Current standard (~112-bit) | <1,000,000 | ~5 days | ● At Risk ~2031 |
| RSA-3072 | 128-bit classical equivalent | ~2,000,000 | ~2–3 weeks | ● At Risk ~2034 |
| RSA-4096 | Strong classical, still used | ~4,000,000 | ~1–2 months | ● At Risk ~2036+ |
| Post-Quantum | Quantum-resistant | N/A | N/A | ● Safe |
20M qubits in 2019. Under 100K in 2026. Hardware is now catching up to theory.
NIST finalized three standards in August 2024. They are production-ready now. OpenSSL 3.5+ supports all three. Migration could take 2–5 years for large organizations.
Three major papers in Q1 2026 have rewritten the timeline. Algorithmic improvement is outrunning hardware.
Harvest-now, decrypt-later attacks are happening today. Data you encrypt now using RSA could be exposed in 5–8 years.